Credit Risk Modeling using Excel and VBA by Gunter Loeffler, Peter N. Posch

By Gunter Loeffler, Peter N. Posch

Notwithstanding it's not that i am an Excel specialist, this ebook is sort of priceless in developing types. due to Wiley Finance and Amazon.

Show description

By Gunter Loeffler, Peter N. Posch

Notwithstanding it's not that i am an Excel specialist, this ebook is sort of priceless in developing types. due to Wiley Finance and Amazon.

Show description

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Extra info for Credit Risk Modeling using Excel and VBA

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Pdf. 40 The Structural Approach to Default Prediction and Valuation We start with step 1. In the balance sheet of a firm, liabilities are split up into current liabilities (maturity less than one year) and long-term liabilities (maturity larger than one year). Additional information on maturity can be obtained from the annual report, an examination of outstanding bonds, or other sources. Usually, however, this information is not sufficient for precisely determining the average maturity. 5 (10) years, the average maturity obtains as (L is total liabilities, CL is current liabilities): 0 5 × CL + 10 × L − CL /L With the balance sheet from Enron’s quarterly report for June 2001, this leads to a maturity of T − t = 5 53 years.

They can reflect genuinely exceptional situations of borrowers, but they can also be due to data errors, conceptual problems in defining a variable or accounting discretion. In any case, extreme values can have a large influence on coefficient estimates, which could impair the overall quality of the scoring model. A first step in approaching the problem is to examine the distribution of the variables. 9, we present several descriptive statistics for our five ratios. Excel provides the functions for the statistics we are interested in: arithmetic means (AVERAGE) and medians (MEDIAN), standard deviations (STDEV), skewness (SKEW) and excess kurtosis (KURT),7 percentiles (PERCENTILE) along with minima (MIN) and maxima (MAX).

It also caught many investors by surprise as Enron had decent agency ratings until a few days before default. We collect quarterly data on Enron’s liabilities from the SEC Edgar data base. The oneyear US treasury serves as the risk-free rate of return2 and the market value of equity can be obtained from various data providers. When linking the daily data on equity value with the quarterly liability data, we take the most recent, available data. The date of availability is taken to be the filing date stated in the SEC filings.

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