Consequence modeling for nuclear weapons probabilistic by Harvey, T.F.; Peters, L.; Serduke, F.J.D.; Hall, C.;

By Harvey, T.F.; Peters, L.; Serduke, F.J.D.; Hall, C.; Stephens, D.R

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By Harvey, T.F.; Peters, L.; Serduke, F.J.D.; Hall, C.; Stephens, D.R

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Extra info for Consequence modeling for nuclear weapons probabilistic cost/benefit analyses of safety retrofits

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Deposition for 100 kg of Pu dispersal. Figure 138 depicts the predicted dose from cloud passage to unsheltered individuals. Note the different distance scales. 2 Nuclear Prompt Effects Prompt effects that are of primary concern from an accidental nuclear explosion are blast, thermal, and prompt neutron/gamma radiation. For a I-kt surface-burst the dominant lethal effect is the neutron and gamma radiation. The dominant delayed nuclear effect is fallout gamma radiation. The largest possible doses of neutron and gamma radiation could lead to quick death from an individual’s nervous system failure; lower, but very substantial doses, would cause hemorrhaging in the gastrointestinal track and death within a few days; doses around five hundred rads would lead to death in many individuals in about 60 days due to failure of the immune system.

For inhalation doses, the highest do not occur until about 10 km from the accident location. Whereas, the groundshine contour is most damaging around ground-zero, the inhalation dose is worse further away from GZ because the nuclear yield lofts the respirable particles to high above ground zero. They must diffuse downward to the ground before they present an inhalation hazard. l 10. 3 14 15 16 INE KLV 16 Ten-ton example of cumulative distributions of individuals receiving gamma doses greater than the dose shown for each of the sixteen wind directions.

7. C. (1990). a. Carterand K. Stewart,“On the OxideFumeFormedby the Combustionof Plutoniumand Uranium,”BOHS SymposiumInhaledParticlesIll, 1970. 9. G. Burley,“Transuranium Elements-Technical Basisfor RemedialActions,”Vol. Environmental ProtectionAgency,Washington,DC. 20460,June1990. S. , Draft,1987. 10. Considerationof terrorists’ events,either usinga stolenweaponor a so-called,low-technology“improvised nucleardevice”(IND)is beyondthe scopeof this work. ,the World Trade Center) than the accidentlocationconsideredin this report.

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